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Chaves vs Felgueiras 1932 — Segunda Liga 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
Wellington Carvalho 14'
V. Moreira 48' (pen)
8/22/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 3Estadio Municipal de Chaves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chaves42%
×Draw28%
Felgueiras 193231%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
1.30
Felgueiras 1932
1.07

Chaves creates 21% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.34
Felgueiras 1932
1.15

allows per match

Chaves
0.99
Felgueiras 1932
1.26

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
69%
Chaves or Felgueiras 1932
72%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
58%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
19%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
73%
Chaves 2+ goals
37%
Chaves 3+ goals
14%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
66%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
29%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
58%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.34 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.30

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.15 + Chaves defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chaves scores more
42%
level
28%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
31%

Chaves at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Vasco Moreira
8'
Pedro Pinho
10'
Pedro Rosas
14'
Wellington Carvalho↳ Tiago Almeida
46'
R. Wilson← P. Pinho
48'
V. MoreiraPenalty
57'
Paulo Victor← Wellington Carvalho
57'
D. Kusso← A. Romero
62'
David Kusso
68'
M. Rivas← Lucas Duarte
71'
Tiago Almeida
73'
Michel Costa← Gabi
79'
Roan Wilson
79'
U. Milovanovic← Reinaldo
80'
Cristiano Pereira
84'
Feliz Vaz
85'
M. Tounkara← Carraca
85'
A. Zangre← V. Moreira
85'
Dario← J. Pinto

Statistics

ChavesFelgueiras
Discipline
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0

Segunda Liga: Chaves 1–1 Felgueiras 1932

Chaves and Felgueiras 1932 drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on August 22, 2025.

Goals: Wellington Carvalho (14'), V. Moreira (48' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chaves in Chaves.