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Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves — Taça de Portugal 2018

Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
FT
2 – 0
Chaves
Chaves
S. Diogo 82'
T. Fonseca 46'
9/25/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Felgueiras 193255%
×Draw23%
Chaves21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felgueiras 1932
1.77
Chaves
1.01

Felgueiras 1932 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932
2.46
Chaves
1.18

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932
0.85
Chaves
1.09

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw
79%
Felgueiras 1932 or Chaves
77%
Draw or Chaves
45%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
31%
Chaves wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
83%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
53%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
26%
Chaves 1+ goals
64%
Chaves 2+ goals
27%
Chaves 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
72%
Chaves (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 2.46 + Chaves defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chaves attack 1.18 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more
55%
level
23%
Chaves scores more
21%

Felgueiras 1932 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
T. Fonseca
82'
82'
S. Diogo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Felgueiras 1932 2–0 Chaves

Felgueiras 1932 beat Chaves 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 25, 2021.

Goals: T. Fonseca (46'), S. Diogo (82').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.