FCSB 4–0 Politehnica Iasi: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Politehnica Iasi

O. Moruţan 90+3'

D. Man 86'

H. Gnohéré 58', 24'

8/5/2018

Liga I · Round 3Arena Națională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

FCSB57%

×Draw24%

Politehnica Iasi20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchPolitehnica Iasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.92

FCSB

1.75

Politehnica Iasi

0.92

FCSB creates 90% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 100 away

1.84

creates per match

0.87

0.97

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FCSB

1.84

Politehnica Iasi

0.87

allows per match

FCSB

0.97

Politehnica Iasi

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Politehnica Iasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

80%

FCSB or Politehnica Iasi

76%

Draw or Politehnica Iasi

43%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

32%

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

83%

FCSB 2+ goals

52%

FCSB 3+ goals

25%

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

60%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

23%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

74%

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + FCSB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FCSB scores more

57%

level

24%

Politehnica Iasi scores more

20%

FCSB at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

H. Gnohéré↳ F. Tănase

36'

Ionuț Cioinac

46'

L. Kizito← I. Cioinac

56'

Marius Mihalache

58'

H. Gnohéré↳ F. Tănase

64'

O. Moruţan← F. Tănase

68'

M. Sanoh← D. Flores

75'

O. Popescu← M. Pintilii

76'

C. Ștefănescu← I. Panţîru

79'

A. Jakoliš← H. Gnohéré

84'

Moussa Sanoh

85'

Marko Momčilović

86'

D. Man↳ O. Moruţan

90+3'

O. Moruţan↳ A. Jakoliš

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCSBPolitehnica

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots9

6Corners6

19Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots9

7On Target3

3Off Target6

Passing

61%Possession39%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1