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FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
Preview
16:00
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
9/12/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 9Arena Nationala
Big match
59%
FCSB
model favours
59%23%18%

Both teams score in 82% of Petrolul Ploiesti’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FCSB59%
×Draw23%
Petrolul Ploiesti18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.79
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.88

FCSB creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.89
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.80

allows per match

FCSB
0.95
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.69

finishing

FCSB+0.11scores more
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.20scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
82%
FCSB or Petrolul Ploiesti
77%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
41%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
34%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
83%
FCSB 2+ goals
53%
FCSB 3+ goals
26%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
59%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
22%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
76%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.95 · 5 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.89 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.79

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + FCSB defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FCSB scores more
59%
level
23%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
18%

FCSB at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Even after scoring first, FCSB win only 46%
  • Both teams score in 72% of FCSB’s matches
  • 68% of FCSB’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Petrolul Ploiesti fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
FCSB
Balanced
Petrolul Ploiesti
Balanced
52%Possession47%
80%Pass accuracy77%
10.0Shots11.0
1.76xGBiggest gap1.23
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FCSBPetrolul Ploiesti

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

5
FCSB
4
Draws
0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 56%
3–11–11–00–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FCSB
WLDDL
Ploiesti
DDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FCSB face Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)

Liga I returns with FCSB hosting Petrolul Ploiesti. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FCSB host Petrolul Ploiesti at Arena Nationala.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.