FCSB 2–2 FC Clinceni: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

FC Clinceni

F. Tănase 56' (pen)

D. Olaru 20'

R. Rusescu 36'

A. Cordea 26'

5/10/2021

Liga I · Championship Round - 7Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FCSB60%

×Draw22%

FC Clinceni18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchFC Clinceni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.94

FCSB

1.92

FC Clinceni

0.94

FCSB creates 104% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 59 away

1.85

creates per match

0.90

0.98

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

FCSB

1.85

FC Clinceni

0.90

allows per match

FCSB

0.98

FC Clinceni

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

FC Clinceni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

82%

FCSB or FC Clinceni

78%

Draw or FC Clinceni

40%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

36%

FC Clinceni wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

85%

FCSB 2+ goals

57%

FCSB 3+ goals

30%

FC Clinceni 1+ goals

61%

FC Clinceni 2+ goals

24%

FC Clinceni 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

77%

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.98 · 155 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.85 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + FCSB defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FCSB scores more

60%

level

22%

FC Clinceni scores more

18%

FCSB at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

26'

36'

46'

46'

56'

F. TănasePenalty

57'

Asen Chandarov

71'

Amir Bilali

72'

T. Moulin← A. Chandarov

73'

C. Tănase← E. Cebotaru

74'

Ovidiu Popescu

78'

P. Pîrvulescu← A. Popa

85'

G. Pashov← A. Cordea

85'

J. Marković← R. Rusescu

90'

Florin Achim

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCSBFC

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots6

6Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots6

5On Target5

4Off Target1

Passing

58%Possession42%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0