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FCSB vs FC Clinceni — Liga I 2018

FCSB
FCSB
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
2/7/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 22Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FCSB60%
×Draw22%
FC Clinceni18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.91
FC Clinceni
0.95

FCSB creates 101% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 59 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.84
FC Clinceni
0.90

allows per match

FCSB
0.99
FC Clinceni
1.98

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
82%
FCSB or FC Clinceni
78%
Draw or FC Clinceni
40%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
35%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
85%
FCSB 2+ goals
57%
FCSB 3+ goals
30%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
61%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
25%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
77%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.99 · 154 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.91

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + FCSB defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FCSB scores more
60%
level
22%
FC Clinceni scores more
18%

FCSB at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FCSB vs FC Clinceni

FC Clinceni beat FCSB 1-0 in Liga I on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.