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FCSB vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2018

FCSB
FCSB
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
11/23/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 17Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FCSB47%
×Draw26%
FC Astra Giurgiu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.50
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.06

FCSB creates 42% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 54 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.84
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.13

allows per match

FCSB
0.99
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.15

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
73%
FCSB or FC Astra Giurgiu
74%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
53%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
24%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
78%
FCSB 2+ goals
44%
FCSB 3+ goals
19%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
65%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
29%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
64%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.99 · 154 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + FCSB defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FCSB scores more
47%
level
26%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
27%

FCSB at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FCSB vs FC Astra Giurgiu

FC Astra Giurgiu beat FCSB 3-1 in Liga I on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.