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FC Astra Giurgiu vs FCSB — Liga I 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FCSB
FCSB
8/22/2020Liga ILiga I · Round 1Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu33%
×Draw26%
FCSB41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.22
FCSB
1.38

FCSB creates 13% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 155 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.36
FCSB
1.51

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.25
FCSB
1.07

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
59%
FC Astra Giurgiu or FCSB
74%
Draw or FCSB
67%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
14%
FCSB wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
70%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
34%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
12%
FCSB 1+ goals
75%
FCSB 2+ goals
40%
FCSB 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
45%
FCSB (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.36 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

FCSB attack 1.51 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
33%
level
26%
FCSB scores more
41%

FCSB at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Astra Giurgiu vs FCSB

FCSB beat FC Astra Giurgiu 3-0 in Liga I on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.