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FCSB vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
7/26/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 3Arena Nationala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FCSB53%
×Draw22%
Farul Constanta25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.95
Farul Constanta
1.28

FCSB creates 52% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.89
Farul Constanta
1.61

allows per match

FCSB
0.95
Farul Constanta
2.01

finishing

FCSB+0.11scores more
Farul Constanta-0.36scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
75%
FCSB or Farul Constanta
78%
Draw or Farul Constanta
47%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
30%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
86%
FCSB 2+ goals
58%
FCSB 3+ goals
31%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
72%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
37%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
68%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.95 · 5 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.89 + Farul Constanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.95

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + FCSB defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FCSB scores more
53%
level
22%
Farul Constanta scores more
25%

FCSB at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FCSB 1–2 Farul Constanta

Farul Constanta beat FCSB 2-1 in Liga I on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Nationala in Bucharest.