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Farul Constanta vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
FCSB
FCSB
11/30/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 18Central Stadium Hagi Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Farul Constanta38%
×Draw26%
FCSB35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.33
FCSB
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 155 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.59
FCSB
1.51

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.04
FCSB
1.07

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
65%
Farul Constanta or FCSB
74%
Draw or FCSB
62%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
17%
FCSB wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
74%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
38%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
15%
FCSB 1+ goals
72%
FCSB 2+ goals
36%
FCSB 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
52%
FCSB (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.04 · 100 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.59 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

FCSB attack 1.51 + Farul Constanta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
38%
level
26%
FCSB scores more
35%

Farul Constanta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Farul Constanta 1–2 FCSB

FCSB beat Farul Constanta 2-1 in Liga I on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Central Stadium Hagi Academy in Ovidiu.