FCSB 2–1 Farul Constanta: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Farul Constanta

A. Băluță 84'

D. Miculescu 26'

Rivaldinho 79'

4/27/2024

Liga I · Championship Round - 7Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

FCSB62%

×Draw19%

Farul Constanta18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.17

FCSB

2.29

Farul Constanta

1.17

FCSB creates 96% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.67

creates per match

1.53

0.80

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

FCSB

2.67

Farul Constanta

1.53

allows per match

FCSB

0.80

Farul Constanta

1.91

-0.89scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

FCSB-0.89scores less

Farul Constanta-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

82%

FCSB or Farul Constanta

81%

Draw or Farul Constanta

38%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

40%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

90%

FCSB 2+ goals

66%

FCSB 3+ goals

40%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

69%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

33%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

77%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.80 · 9 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.91 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.67 + Farul Constanta defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.29

Farul Constanta attack 1.53 + FCSB defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FCSB scores more

62%

level

19%

Farul Constanta scores more

18%

FCSB at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Octavian Popescu

FCSB · F

7.9

Match Events

26'

D. Miculescu↳ D. Olaru

37'

Siyabonga Ngezana

46'

Rivaldinho← L. Andronache

46'

A. Benchaib← D. Sîrbu

54'

Mihai Lixandru

67'

N. Popescu← C. Grameni

67'

73'

78'

78'

79'

Rivaldinho↳ L. Munteanu

84'

Alexandru Băluță

84'

A. Băluță

86'

Darius Olaru

87'

A. Pandele← Octavian Popescu

90+3'

Carlo Casap

90'

B. Alhassan← A. Băluță

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSBFarul

Overview

44%Possession56%

19Total Shots8

7Corners7

13Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots8

6On Target2

6Off Target4

7Blocked2

13Inside Box2

6Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

365Total Passes463

276Accurate Passes360

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

5Yellow Cards2