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FCSB vs Dunajska Streda — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dunajska Streda
Dunajska Streda
A. Cordea 28'
8/11/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundArena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FCSB37%
×Draw28%
Dunajska Streda36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.22
Dunajska Streda
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.11
Dunajska Streda
0.83

allows per match

FCSB
1.56
Dunajska Streda
1.33

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
Dunajska Streda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Dunajska Streda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
64%
FCSB or Dunajska Streda
72%
Draw or Dunajska Streda
63%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
16%
Dunajska Streda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
70%
FCSB 2+ goals
34%
FCSB 3+ goals
12%
Dunajska Streda 1+ goals
70%
Dunajska Streda 2+ goals
34%
Dunajska Streda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
51%
Dunajska Streda (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Dunajska Streda away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.11 + Dunajska Streda defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dunajska Streda attack 0.83 + FCSB defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FCSB scores more
37%
level
28%
Dunajska Streda scores more
36%

FCSB at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
A. Cordea
46'
I. Nicolăescu← R. Szánthó
51'
R. Oaidă← D. Miculescu
72'
A. Șut← A. Cordea
78'
Milan Dimun
80'
D. Veselovský← Ammar Ramadan
80'
É. Davis← Mateus Brunetti
86'
Adrian Șut
88'
I. Stoica← B. Rusu

Statistics

FCSBDunajska
Overview
9Corners2
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1

UEFA Europa Conference League: FCSB 1–0 Dunajska Streda

FCSB beat Dunajska Streda 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 11, 2022.

Goals: A. Cordea (28').

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.