Dunajska Streda 0–1 FCSB: Result & Stats

Dunajska Streda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

J. Tamm 69'

8/3/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundMOL Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dunajska Streda46%

×Draw26%

FCSB28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunajska StredaExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.08

Dunajska Streda

1.46

FCSB

1.08

Dunajska Streda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Dunajska Streda

1.17

FCSB

1.00

allows per match

Dunajska Streda

1.17

FCSB

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunajska Streda+0.00on par

FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunajska Streda ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dunajska Streda or draw

72%

Dunajska Streda or FCSB

74%

Draw or FCSB

54%

Winning margin

Dunajska Streda wins by 2+

22%

FCSB wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dunajska Streda 1+ goals

77%

Dunajska Streda 2+ goals

43%

Dunajska Streda 3+ goals

18%

FCSB 1+ goals

66%

FCSB 2+ goals

29%

FCSB 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dunajska Streda (draw refunded)

62%

FCSB (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunajska Streda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunajska Streda attack 1.17 + FCSB defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

FCSB attack 1.00 + Dunajska Streda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dunajska Streda scores more

46%

level

26%

FCSB scores more

28%

Dunajska Streda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dunajska Streda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Joyskim Dawa Tchakonte

22'

46'

56'

56'

63'

64'

68'

68'

68'

Mateus Brunetti← R. Szánthó

69'

73'

75'

76'

78'

M. Lixandru← D. Miculescu

86'

I. Nicolăescu← N. Krstović

86'

Z. Kalmár← D. Veselovský

90+6'

Zsolt Kalmár

Statistics

DunajskaFCSB

Overview

3Corners1

Discipline

2Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Dunajska Streda vs FCSB

FCSB beat Dunajska Streda 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 3, 2022.

Goals: J. Tamm (69').

The match was played at MOL Aréna in Dunajská Streda.

Dunajska Streda vs FCSB — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Dunajska Streda vs FCSB