FCSB 0–1 Concordia: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Concordia

P. Batin 60'

10/7/2018

Liga I · Round 11Arena Națională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FCSB59%

×Draw23%

Concordia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchConcordia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.87

FCSB

1.78

Concordia

0.87

FCSB creates 105% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 21 away

1.85

creates per match

0.76

0.98

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

FCSB

1.85

Concordia

0.76

allows per match

FCSB

0.98

Concordia

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Concordia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

82%

FCSB or Concordia

77%

Draw or Concordia

41%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

34%

Concordia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

83%

FCSB 2+ goals

53%

FCSB 3+ goals

26%

Concordia 1+ goals

58%

Concordia 2+ goals

22%

Concordia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

76%

Concordia (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.98 · 155 matches

Concordia away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.85 + Concordia defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Concordia attack 0.76 + FCSB defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FCSB scores more

59%

level

23%

Concordia scores more

18%

FCSB at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

57'

60'

67'

72'

R. Rusescu← R. Benzar

73'

Ronaldo Deaconu

77'

Petre Daniel Ivanovici

80'

M. Roman← D. Man

82'

M. Cristescu← P. Ivanovici

84'

F. Coman← F. Tănase

86'

Raul Rusescu

87'

Filipe Teixeira

87'

D. Panait← R. Deaconu

90'

Alexandru Greab

90'

Marian Cristescu

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCSBConcordia

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots5

9Corners3

21Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots5

3On Target3

6Off Target2

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls16

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1