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FCSB vs Concordia — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Concordia
Concordia
11/5/2017Liga ILiga I · Round 17Arena Natională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

FCSB59%
×Draw23%
Concordia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.77
Concordia
0.85

FCSB creates 108% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 23 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.84
Concordia
0.74

allows per match

FCSB
0.97
Concordia
1.70

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Concordia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
82%
FCSB or Concordia
77%
Draw or Concordia
41%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
34%
Concordia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
83%
FCSB 2+ goals
53%
FCSB 3+ goals
26%
Concordia 1+ goals
57%
Concordia 2+ goals
21%
Concordia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
77%
Concordia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

Concordia away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + Concordia defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

Concordia attack 0.74 + FCSB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FCSB scores more
59%
level
23%
Concordia scores more
18%

FCSB at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FCSB vs Concordia

FCSB beat Concordia 2-1 in Liga I on November 5, 2017.

The match was played at Arena Natională in Bucharest.