FCM Ungheni 1–1 Speranis Nisporeni: Result & Stats

FCM Ungheni

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Speranis Nisporeni

4/11/2025

League #395 · 2nd Phase - 5Teren sintetic Nisporeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FCM Ungheni57%

×Draw21%

Speranis Nisporeni22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCM UngheniExpected goals in this matchSperanis Nisporeni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.29

FCM Ungheni

2.17

Speranis Nisporeni

1.29

FCM Ungheni creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FCM Ungheni

2.33

Speranis Nisporeni

1.25

allows per match

FCM Ungheni

1.33

Speranis Nisporeni

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCM Ungheni+0.00on par

Speranis Nisporeni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCM Ungheni ↓

Speranis Nisporeni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FCM Ungheni or draw

78%

FCM Ungheni or Speranis Nisporeni

79%

Draw or Speranis Nisporeni

43%

Winning margin

FCM Ungheni wins by 2+

35%

Speranis Nisporeni wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FCM Ungheni 1+ goals

89%

FCM Ungheni 2+ goals

64%

FCM Ungheni 3+ goals

36%

Speranis Nisporeni 1+ goals

72%

Speranis Nisporeni 2+ goals

37%

Speranis Nisporeni 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)

72%

Speranis Nisporeni (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCM Ungheni at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Speranis Nisporeni away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCM Ungheni attack 2.33 + Speranis Nisporeni defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Speranis Nisporeni attack 1.25 + FCM Ungheni defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FCM Ungheni scores more

57%

level

21%

Speranis Nisporeni scores more

22%

FCM Ungheni at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FCM Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff