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FCM Ungheni vs Speranis Nisporeni — Cupa 2020

FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Speranis Nisporeni
Speranis Nisporeni
O. Vatavu 87'
D. Roman 58'
A. Lavric 45'
N. Porojniuc 40', 37'
10/3/2023CupaCupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Ungheni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FCM Ungheni32%
×Draw22%
Speranis Nisporeni46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCM Ungheni
1.60
Speranis Nisporeni
1.97

Speranis Nisporeni creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

FCM Ungheni
2.20
Speranis Nisporeni
2.33

allows per match

FCM Ungheni
1.60
Speranis Nisporeni
1.00

finishing

FCM Ungheni+0.00on par
Speranis Nisporeni+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCM Ungheni ↓

Speranis Nisporeni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FCM Ungheni or draw
54%
FCM Ungheni or Speranis Nisporeni
78%
Draw or Speranis Nisporeni
68%

Winning margin

FCM Ungheni wins by 2+
15%
Speranis Nisporeni wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

FCM Ungheni 1+ goals
80%
FCM Ungheni 2+ goals
47%
FCM Ungheni 3+ goals
22%
Speranis Nisporeni 1+ goals
86%
Speranis Nisporeni 2+ goals
58%
Speranis Nisporeni 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)
41%
Speranis Nisporeni (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCM Ungheni at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Speranis Nisporeni away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCM Ungheni attack 2.20 + Speranis Nisporeni defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Speranis Nisporeni attack 2.33 + FCM Ungheni defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FCM Ungheni scores more
32%
level
22%
Speranis Nisporeni scores more
46%

Speranis Nisporeni at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Speranis Nisporeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
N. Porojniuc
40'
N. Porojniuc
45'
A. Lavric
58'
D. Roman
87'
O. Vatavu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: FCM Ungheni 3–2 Speranis Nisporeni

FCM Ungheni beat Speranis Nisporeni 3-2 in Cupa on October 3, 2023.

Goals: N. Porojniuc (37', 40'), A. Lavric (45'), D. Roman (58'), O. Vatavu (87').

The match was played at Stadionul Ungheni in Ungheni.