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FC Zurich vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Zurich48%
×Draw21%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
2.12
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.69

FC Zurich creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
2.07
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.17

allows per match

FC Zurich
2.21
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.17

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
69%
FC Zurich or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
79%
Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
52%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
28%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
88%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
62%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
35%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
82%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
50%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
60%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 2.07, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 2.07 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.12

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.17 + FC Zurich defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Zurich scores more
48%
level
21%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
31%

FC Zurich at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Zurich vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy beat FC Zurich 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.