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FC Zurich vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — Super League 2018

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
10/28/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Zurich47%
×Draw24%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
1.69
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.27

FC Zurich creates 33% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 20 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
1.53
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.15

allows per match

FC Zurich
1.40
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.85

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
71%
FC Zurich or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
76%
Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
53%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
25%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
82%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
50%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
24%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals
72%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals
36%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
62%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 147 matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.53 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.15 + FC Zurich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Zurich scores more
47%
level
24%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more
29%

FC Zurich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Zurich 1–1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FC Zurich and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy drew 1-1 in Super League on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.