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FC Zurich vs FC ST. Gallen — Super League 2018

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
J. Markelo 73'
P. P. Keny 64'
S. Zuber 58'
C. Boukhalfa 22' (pen)
9/27/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Letzigrund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Zurich49%
×Draw21%
FC ST. Gallen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
2.13
FC ST. Gallen
1.63

FC Zurich creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
2.08
FC ST. Gallen
1.48

allows per match

FC Zurich
1.78
FC ST. Gallen
2.19

finishing

FC Zurich-0.22scores less
FC ST. Gallen+0.37scores more

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC ST. Gallen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
70%
FC Zurich or FC ST. Gallen
79%
Draw or FC ST. Gallen
51%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
29%
FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
88%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
63%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
35%
FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
80%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
48%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
62%
FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.78 · 7 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.19 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 2.08 + FC ST. Gallen defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.13

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.48 + FC Zurich defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Zurich scores more
49%
level
21%
FC ST. Gallen scores more
30%

FC Zurich at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
J. MarkeloFC ZurichFC Zurich · F
8.6

Match Events

3'
Jorge Segura
20'
Alessandro VogtPenalty confirmed
22'
C. BoukhalfaPenalty
27'
L. Kamberi← J. Segura
38'
Milan Rodić
46'
C. Konietzke← L. Gortler
58'
S. Zuber↳ M. Gomez
59'
S. Vladi← A. Vogt
59'
M. Efekele← A. Balde
64'
P. P. Keny↳ M. Phaeton
72'
T. Ouattara← C. Witzig
73'
J. Markelo↳ P. P. Keny
80'
J. Perea← P. P. Keny
80'
U. Emmanuel← M. Phaeton
81'
Livano Comenencia
84'
Tom Gaal
87'
N. Volken← M. Rodic
87'
A. Vallci← C. May
88'
B. Krasniqi← C. Tsawa
90+4'
Jahnoah Markelo
90+5'
Behar Neziri

Possession

59%FC

Shots

29FC

Pass accuracy

53%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
59%Possession41%
29Total Shots6
5.53Expected Goals (xG)1.23
5Corners4
16Fouls21
Shots
29Total Shots6
12On Target1
8Off Target5
9Blocked0
22Inside Box4
7Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
320Total Passes224
233Accurate Passes144
73%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
Discipline
16Fouls21
4Yellow Cards2
0Offsides4

Match Recap: FC Zurich vs FC ST. Gallen

FC Zurich beat FC ST. Gallen 3-1 in Super League on September 27, 2025.

Goals: C. Boukhalfa (22' pen), S. Zuber (58'), P. P. Keny (64'), J. Markelo (73').

FC Zurich controlled possession (59%) and registered 29 shots to 6.

The match was played at Letzigrund Stadion in Zurich.