FC ST. Gallen 3–2 FC Zurich: Result & Stats

FC ST. Gallen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FC Zurich

H. Vandermersch 49'

W. Geubbels 42' (pen)

L. Daschner 8'

S. Ballet 58'

S. Zuber 31' (pen)

5/17/2025

Super League · Relegation Round - 4kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

FC ST. Gallen48%

×Draw23%

FC Zurich29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ST. GallenExpected goals in this matchFC Zurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.34

FC ST. Gallen

1.78

FC Zurich

1.34

FC ST. Gallen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 147 away

1.89

creates per match

1.31

1.38

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen

1.89

FC Zurich

1.31

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen

1.38

FC Zurich

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par

FC Zurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Zurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw

71%

FC ST. Gallen or FC Zurich

77%

Draw or FC Zurich

52%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

26%

FC Zurich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

83%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

53%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

26%

FC Zurich 1+ goals

74%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

39%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

62%

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.38 · 146 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.67 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.89 + FC Zurich defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC Zurich attack 1.31 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more

48%

level

23%

FC Zurich scores more

29%

FC ST. Gallen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

J. Markelo

FC Zurich · F

8.6

Match Events

8'

L. Daschner↳ A. Vallci

31'

S. ZuberPenalty

32'

Lukas Daschner

41'

Mihailo StevanovićPenalty confirmed

42'

W. GeubbelsPenalty

45+4'

Cheveyo Tsawa

46'

C. Akolo← W. Geubbels

46'

S. Ballet← U. Emmanuel

49'

H. Vandermersch↳ F. Mambimbi

52'

Jozo Stanić

55'

Chadrac AkoloMissed penalty

55'

Felix Mambimbi

57'

M. Bangoura← C. Tsawa

58'

S. Ballet↳ M. Chouiar

69'

B. Toma← C. Konietzke

75'

J. Nsame← F. Mambimbi

75'

78'

90+1'

90+2'

90+2'

D. Reverson← B. Krasniqi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots19

3.45Expected Goals (xG)2.46

9Corners2

15Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots19

7On Target7

4Off Target10

2Blocked2

10Inside Box12

3Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

296Total Passes390

206Accurate Passes320

70%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls21

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Zurich

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Zurich 3-2 in Super League on May 17, 2025.

Goals: L. Daschner (8'), S. Zuber (31' pen), W. Geubbels (42' pen), H. Vandermersch (49'), S. Ballet (58').

FC Zurich controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at kybunpark in St. Gallen.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Zurich — Super League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Zurich