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FC Zurich vs FC Sion — Super League 2018

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
FC Sion
FC Sion
D. Reverson 55'
S. Zuber 27'
W. Boteli 90'
J. Lukembila 87'
R. Nivokazi 81'
7/25/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Letzigrund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

FC Zurich38%
×Draw24%
FC Sion38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
1.57
FC Sion
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
1.73
FC Sion
1.44

allows per match

FC Zurich
1.71
FC Sion
1.41

finishing

FC Zurich-0.06on par
FC Sion+0.13scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC Sion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
62%
FC Zurich or FC Sion
76%
Draw or FC Sion
62%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
19%
FC Sion wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
79%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
46%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
21%
FC Sion 1+ goals
79%
FC Sion 2+ goals
46%
FC Sion 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
50%
FC Sion (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

FC Sion away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.73 + FC Sion defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Sion attack 1.44 + FC Zurich defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Zurich scores more
38%
level
24%
FC Sion scores more
38%

FC Zurich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Y. ChouarefFC SionFC Sion · M
7.9

Match Events

21'
Miguel Reichmuth
27'
S. Zuber↳ U. Emmanuel
54'
Ali Kabacalman
55'
D. Reverson↳ U. Emmanuel
64'
L. Chipperfield← K. Hajrizi
64'
T. Berdayes← A. Miranchuk
64'
J. Lukembila← B. Kololli
66'
J. Markelo← D. Reverson
67'
Liam Scott Chipperfield
77'
T. Bouchlarhem← A. Kabacalman
81'
R. Nivokazi↳ Y. Chouaref
82'
B. Krasniqi← M. Phaeton
82'
V. Nvendo Ferrier← U. Emmanuel
85'
W. Boteli← R. Nivokazi
86'
G. Stork← M. Reichmuth
87'
K. Ihendu← I. Sauter
87'
J. Lukembila↳ Y. Chouaref
90'
W. Boteli

Possession

56%FC

Shots

9FC

Pass accuracy

52%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots15
0.78Expected Goals (xG)1.24
3Corners2
15Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots15
5On Target6
3Off Target7
1Blocked2
5Inside Box8
4Outside Box7
Passing
56%Possession44%
435Total Passes332
374Accurate Passes262
86%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2

Super League: FC Zurich 2–3 FC Sion

FC Sion beat FC Zurich 3-2 in Super League on July 25, 2025.

Goals: S. Zuber (27'), D. Reverson (55'), R. Nivokazi (81'), J. Lukembila (87'), W. Boteli (90').

FC Zurich controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Letzigrund Stadion in Zurich.