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FC Sion vs FC Zurich — Super League 2018

FC Sion
FC Sion
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FC Zurich
FC Zurich
R. Nivokazi 40'
Y. Chouaref 12'
P. P. Keny 49'
S. Zuber 45' (pen)
11/23/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Sion46%
×Draw24%
FC Zurich30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sion
1.64
FC Zurich
1.27

FC Sion creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 28 away

creates per match

FC Sion
1.54
FC Zurich
1.31

allows per match

FC Sion
1.23
FC Zurich
1.74

finishing

FC Sion+0.40scores more
FC Zurich-0.13scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

FC Zurich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw
70%
FC Sion or FC Zurich
76%
Draw or FC Zurich
54%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+
24%
FC Zurich wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals
81%
FC Sion 2+ goals
49%
FC Sion 3+ goals
23%
FC Zurich 1+ goals
72%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
36%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)
61%
FC Zurich (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.74 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.54 + FC Zurich defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

FC Zurich attack 1.31 + FC Sion defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Sion scores more
46%
level
24%
FC Zurich scores more
30%

FC Sion at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
R. NivokaziFC SionFC Sion · F
8.9

Match Events

7'
M. Reichmuth← N. Palacio
12'
Y. Chouaref↳ N. Hefti
26'
David Vujević
40'
R. Nivokazi↳ L. Chipperfield
44'
Philippe KenyPenalty confirmed
45'
S. ZuberPenalty
49'
P. P. Keny↳ S. Zuber
50'
Philippe KenyGoal confirmed
60'
L. Comenencia← J. Ligue
60'
U. Emmanuel← J. Markelo
66'
T. Berdayes← L. Chipperfield
66'
J. Lukembila← D. Rrudhani
71'
B. Krasniqi← C. Tsawa
71'
I. Sauter← D. Vujevic
83'
T. Bouchlarhem← Y. Chouaref
83'
W. Boteli← R. Nivokazi
86'
Kreshnik Hajrizi
89'
Ali Kabacalman

Possession

52%FC

Shots

16FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
52%Possession48%
16Total Shots13
2.65Expected Goals (xG)2.15
7Corners1
11Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots13
5On Target4
8Off Target6
3Blocked3
12Inside Box8
4Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
377Total Passes359
300Accurate Passes286
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Sion vs FC Zurich

FC Sion and FC Zurich drew 2-2 in Super League on November 23, 2025.

Goals: Y. Chouaref (12'), R. Nivokazi (40'), S. Zuber (45' pen), P. P. Keny (49').

FC Sion controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade de Tourbillon in Sion.