FC Zurich 0–3 FC Schalke 04: Result & Stats

FC Zurich

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

FC Schalke 04

E. Hojlund 68'

M. Kaminski 10'

M. Sylla 7'

1/9/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Titanic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Zurich28%

×Draw21%

FC Schalke 0451%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ZurichExpected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.14

FC Zurich

1.56

FC Schalke 04

2.14

FC Schalke 04 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.20

creates per match

2.18

2.10

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

FC Zurich

2.20

FC Schalke 04

2.18

allows per match

FC Zurich

2.10

FC Schalke 04

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Zurich+0.00on par

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw

49%

FC Zurich or FC Schalke 04

79%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

72%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+

13%

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals

79%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

46%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

21%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

88%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

63%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

36%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 2.20 + FC Schalke 04 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Schalke 04 attack 2.18 + FC Zurich defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Zurich scores more

28%

level

21%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

51%

FC Schalke 04 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Sylla

10'

M. Kaminski

68'

E. Hojlund

FC

28

Heekeren

31

Bulut

6

Schallenb

35

⚽

5

7

37

23

19

24

9

⚽

1

2

36

5

16

6

23

10

37

9

21

Manager: Mitchell van der Gaag

FC Zurich substitutes

26Reichmuth

Manager: Miron Muslic

FC Schalke 04 substitutes

26Kalas17Gantenbein2Sánchez21Wasinski29Mohr30Donkor43Hong99Amoussou-Tchibara15Højlund39Remmert