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FC Schalke 04 vs FC Zurich — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
FT
2 – 2
FC Zurich
FC Zurich
1/7/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Titanic Sports Center - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Schalke 0448%
×Draw18%
FC Zurich34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Schalke 04
2.83
FC Zurich
2.41

FC Schalke 04 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Schalke 04
4.11
FC Zurich
3.15

allows per match

FC Schalke 04
1.67
FC Zurich
1.54

finishing

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par
FC Zurich+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schalke 04 ↓

FC Zurich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

FC Schalke 04 or draw
66%
FC Schalke 04 or FC Zurich
82%
Draw or FC Zurich
52%

Winning margin

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
30%
FC Zurich wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
94%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
77%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
53%
FC Zurich 1+ goals
91%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
69%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
58%
FC Zurich (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schalke 04 at home — creates 4.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 3.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schalke 04 attack 4.11 + FC Zurich defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.83

FC Zurich attack 3.15 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Schalke 04 scores more
48%
level
18%
FC Zurich scores more
34%

FC Schalke 04 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Schalke 04 vs FC Zurich

FC Schalke 04 and FC Zurich drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Titanic Sports Center - Field 1 in Belek.