FC Wurzburger Kickers 0–1 SpVgg Unterhaching

FC Wurzburger Kickers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SpVgg Unterhaching

S. Schimmer 17'

3/4/2019

League #80 · Round 26Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers25%

×Draw30%

SpVgg Unterhaching45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Wurzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Unterhaching

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.19

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.81

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.19

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

0.79

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.79

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.17

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.21

SpVgg Unterhaching

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

SpVgg Unterhaching →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw

55%

FC Wurzburger Kickers or SpVgg Unterhaching

70%

Draw or SpVgg Unterhaching

75%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

8%

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

56%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

19%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

5%

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals

70%

SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals

33%

SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

36%

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

SpVgg Unterhaching away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.79 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 1.17 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

25%

level

30%

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more

45%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Marc Endres

17'

S. Schimmer↳ M. Endres

20'

Alexander Winkler

46'

D. Mast← S. Skarlatidis

61'

Markus Schwabl

64'

Sascha Bigalke

65'

P. Ofosu-Ayeh← P. Göbel

68'

D. Widemann← S. Bigalke

72'

P. Breitkreuz← P. Kurzweg

75'

M. Dombrowka← L. Marseiler

89'

90'

90'

90'

Statistics

FCSpVgg

Overview

6Corners2

Discipline

0Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1