FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–3 Hannover 96

FC Wurzburger Kickers

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hannover 96

R. Herrmann 90+5' (pen)

A. Feick 90'

T. Hübers 78'

D. Kaiser 59'

H. Weydandt 23'

9/14/2020

DFB Pokal · 1st Roundflyeralarm-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers15%

×Draw21%

Hannover 9664%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Wurzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchHannover 96

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.98

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.83

Hannover 96

1.98

Hannover 96 creates 139% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

2.29

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.67

Hannover 96

2.29

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.67

Hannover 96

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Hannover 96 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw

36%

FC Wurzburger Kickers or Hannover 96

79%

Draw or Hannover 96

85%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

5%

Hannover 96 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

56%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

20%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

5%

Hannover 96 1+ goals

86%

Hannover 96 2+ goals

59%

Hannover 96 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

19%

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.67 + Hannover 96 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Hannover 96 attack 2.29 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

15%

level

21%

Hannover 96 scores more

64%

Hannover 96 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

T. Hübers

Hannover 96 · D

8.5

Match Events

21'

Leroy Kwadwo

23'

H. Weydandt↳ T. Hübers

50'

Robert Herrmann

55'

Genki Haraguchi

59'

D. Kaiser↳ M. Ducksch

60'

L. Pfeiffer← D. Baumann

60'

F. Flecker← F. Ronstadt

66'

K. Staude← D. Kopacz

71'

L. Maina← P. Ochs

73'

Daniel Hägele

76'

F. Evina← G. Haraguchi

78'

T. Hübers

85'

Douglas← L. Kwadwo

85'

D. Meisel← P. Sontheimer

85'

V. Sulejmani← D. Kaiser

85'

F. Muslija← H. Weydandt

85'

P. Twumasi← M. Ducksch

90'

A. Feick↳ F. Flecker

90+5'

R. HerrmannPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCHannover

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots12

7Corners6

13Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots12

4On Target3

5Off Target7

0Blocked2

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

405Total Passes376

289Accurate Passes252

71%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1