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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Hannover 96 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hannover 96
Hannover 96
4/7/20172. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 28Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers33%
×Draw26%
Hannover 9641%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.26
Hannover 96
1.44

Hannover 96 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 120 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.00
Hannover 96
1.39

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.48
Hannover 96
1.52

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
59%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Hannover 96
74%
Draw or Hannover 96
67%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
14%
Hannover 96 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
72%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
36%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
13%
Hannover 96 1+ goals
76%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
42%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
44%
Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.00 + Hannover 96 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Hannover 96 attack 1.39 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
33%
level
26%
Hannover 96 scores more
41%

Hannover 96 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 0–0 Hannover 96

FC Wurzburger Kickers and Hannover 96 drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 7, 2017.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wuerzburg.