FC Wurzburger Kickers 3–0 FC Schweinfurt 05

FC Wurzburger Kickers

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FC Schweinfurt 05

4/19/2024

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 30AKON ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers61%

×Draw19%

FC Schweinfurt 0520%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Wurzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchFC Schweinfurt 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.26

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.31

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.26

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 83% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 67 away

2.76

creates per match

1.76

0.76

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.76

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.76

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.76

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw

80%

FC Wurzburger Kickers or FC Schweinfurt 05

81%

Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05

39%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

38%

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

90%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

67%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

40%

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

72%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

36%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

75%

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.87 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.31

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.76 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

61%

level

19%

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

20%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff