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FC Schweinfurt 05 vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

FC Schweinfurt 05
FC Schweinfurt 05
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
9/2/2022Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 10Willy-Sachs-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FC Schweinfurt 0535%
×Draw24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Schweinfurt 05
1.52
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 54 away

creates per match

FC Schweinfurt 05
2.29
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

FC Schweinfurt 05
1.20
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schweinfurt 05 ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Schweinfurt 05 or draw
59%
FC Schweinfurt 05 or FC Wurzburger Kickers
76%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
65%

Winning margin

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+
17%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals
78%
FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals
45%
FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals
20%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
81%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
49%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)
46%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schweinfurt 05 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 2.29 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more
35%
level
24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
41%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Schweinfurt 05 vs FC Wurzburger Kickers

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat FC Schweinfurt 05 5-2 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 2, 2022.

The match was played at Willy-Sachs-Stadion in Schweinfurt.