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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs FC Heidenheim — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Heidenheim
FC Heidenheim
2/11/20172. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 20Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers34%
×Draw27%
FC Heidenheim39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.21
FC Heidenheim
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 82 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.00
FC Heidenheim
1.15

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.48
FC Heidenheim
1.43

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
FC Heidenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

FC Heidenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
61%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or FC Heidenheim
73%
Draw or FC Heidenheim
66%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
14%
FC Heidenheim wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
70%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
34%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
12%
FC Heidenheim 1+ goals
73%
FC Heidenheim 2+ goals
38%
FC Heidenheim 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
47%
FC Heidenheim (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

FC Heidenheim away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.00 + FC Heidenheim defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Heidenheim attack 1.15 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
34%
level
27%
FC Heidenheim scores more
39%

FC Heidenheim at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Heidenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 0–2 FC Heidenheim

FC Heidenheim beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on February 11, 2017.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wuerzburg.