FC Heidenheim 4–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers

FC Heidenheim

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Wurzburger Kickers

11/6/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 7Voith-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Heidenheim58%

×Draw22%

FC Wurzburger Kickers19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC HeidenheimExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.98

FC Heidenheim

1.87

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.98

FC Heidenheim creates 91% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 27 away

1.89

creates per match

0.93

1.02

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

FC Heidenheim

1.89

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.93

allows per match

FC Heidenheim

1.02

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Heidenheim+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Heidenheim ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Heidenheim or draw

81%

FC Heidenheim or FC Wurzburger Kickers

78%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

42%

Winning margin

FC Heidenheim wins by 2+

34%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Heidenheim 1+ goals

85%

FC Heidenheim 2+ goals

56%

FC Heidenheim 3+ goals

29%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

62%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

26%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FC Heidenheim (draw refunded)

75%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Heidenheim at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Heidenheim attack 1.89 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.87

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + FC Heidenheim defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Heidenheim scores more

58%

level

22%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

19%

FC Heidenheim at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Heidenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff