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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Eintracht Bamberg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
3/30/2024Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 27AKON ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers72%
×Draw17%
Eintracht Bamberg11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.38
Eintracht Bamberg
0.79

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 201% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.76
Eintracht Bamberg
0.82

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76
Eintracht Bamberg
2.00

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
89%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Eintracht Bamberg
83%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
28%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
49%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
91%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
68%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
42%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
55%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
19%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
87%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Eintracht Bamberg attack 0.82 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
72%
level
17%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
11%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Eintracht Bamberg

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Eintracht Bamberg 4-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at AKON ARENA in Würzburg.