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Eintracht Bamberg vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
9/16/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 10Fuchs-Park-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg16%
×Draw20%
FC Wurzburger Kickers63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
0.94
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.08

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 121% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
1.12
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.06
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
37%
Eintracht Bamberg or FC Wurzburger Kickers
80%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
84%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
5%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
61%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
24%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
7%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
87%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
61%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
20%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.12 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
16%
level
20%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
63%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Eintracht Bamberg 1–5 FC Wurzburger Kickers

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Eintracht Bamberg 5-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Fuchs-Park-Stadion in Bamberg.