FC Wurzburger Kickers 6–2 Augsburg II

FC Wurzburger Kickers

FT

6 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Augsburg II

11/4/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 19AKON ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers62%

×Draw20%

Augsburg II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Wurzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchAugsburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.11

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.23

Augsburg II

1.11

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 101% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 87 away

2.76

creates per match

1.47

0.76

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.76

Augsburg II

1.47

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.76

Augsburg II

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Augsburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Augsburg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw

82%

FC Wurzburger Kickers or Augsburg II

80%

Draw or Augsburg II

38%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

40%

Augsburg II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

89%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

65%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

38%

Augsburg II 1+ goals

67%

Augsburg II 2+ goals

30%

Augsburg II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

78%

Augsburg II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Augsburg II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.70 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Augsburg II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.23

Augsburg II attack 1.47 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

62%

level

20%

Augsburg II scores more

18%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff