Augsburg II 1–3 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Augsburg II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FC Wurzburger Kickers

4/15/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 32Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Augsburg II29%

×Draw23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg IIExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.76

Augsburg II

1.32

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.76

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 54 away

1.89

creates per match

2.11

1.42

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Augsburg II

1.89

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.11

allows per match

Augsburg II

1.42

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg II+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg II ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Augsburg II or draw

52%

Augsburg II or FC Wurzburger Kickers

77%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

71%

Winning margin

Augsburg II wins by 2+

12%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Augsburg II 1+ goals

73%

Augsburg II 2+ goals

38%

Augsburg II 3+ goals

15%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

83%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

52%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Augsburg II (draw refunded)

38%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.42 · 88 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg II attack 1.89 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Augsburg II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Augsburg II scores more

29%

level

23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

48%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff