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FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau — Challenge League 2026

FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
Preview
18:15
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
9/18/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 9
Big match
49%
FC Winterthur
model favours
49%22%29%

FC Winterthur score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Winterthur49%
×Draw22%
FC Aarau29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Winterthur
2.00
FC Aarau
1.50

FC Winterthur creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 61 away

creates per match

FC Winterthur
1.95
FC Aarau
1.59

allows per match

FC Winterthur
1.41
FC Aarau
2.05

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par
FC Aarau+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

FC Aarau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw
71%
FC Winterthur or FC Aarau
78%
Draw or FC Aarau
51%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+
28%
FC Aarau wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals
86%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
59%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
32%
FC Aarau 1+ goals
78%
FC Aarau 2+ goals
44%
FC Aarau 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
63%
FC Aarau (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

FC Aarau away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.05 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.95 + FC Aarau defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Aarau attack 1.59 + FC Winterthur defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Winterthur scores more
49%
level
22%
FC Aarau scores more
29%

FC Winterthur at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of FC Winterthur’s matches
  • 70% of FC Winterthur’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Winterthur
DDDLL
Aarau
WLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Winterthur host FC Aarau

September 18, 2026: FC Winterthur take on FC Aarau in Challenge League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.