FC Winterthur 4–2 FC Aarau: Result & Stats

FC Winterthur

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

FC Aarau

S. Ballet 90+2'

T. Corbaz 88'

E. Abedini 24'

R. Alves 11' (pen)

K. Spadanuda 15'

L. Bergsma 4'

3/11/2022

Challenge League · Round 26Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FC Winterthur49%

×Draw22%

FC Aarau29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchFC Aarau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.49

FC Winterthur

2.00

FC Aarau

1.49

FC Winterthur creates 34% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 62 away

1.95

creates per match

1.56

1.42

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

FC Winterthur

1.95

FC Aarau

1.56

allows per match

FC Winterthur

1.42

FC Aarau

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Winterthur+0.00on par

FC Aarau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

FC Aarau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

71%

FC Winterthur or FC Aarau

78%

Draw or FC Aarau

51%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

28%

FC Aarau wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

86%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

59%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

32%

FC Aarau 1+ goals

77%

FC Aarau 2+ goals

44%

FC Aarau 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

63%

FC Aarau (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

FC Aarau away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.95 + FC Aarau defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Aarau attack 1.56 + FC Winterthur defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

49%

level

22%

FC Aarau scores more

29%

FC Winterthur at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

L. Bergsma

9'

A. Cvetkovic

11'

R. AlvesPenalty

15'

24'

29'

57'

64'

65'

S. Ballet← S. Demhasaj

69'

L. Balaj← R. Schneider

75'

S. Gashi← K. Spadanuda

79'

80'

80'

83'

87'

J. Thiesson← D. Rrudhani

87'

S. Schwegler← S. Vladi

88'

90'

90+2'

90+2'

FC

1

Enzler

54

Cvetković

5

⚽

34

14

23

40

▼

Schneider

6

Njie

7

⚽

▼

Spadanuda

11

▼

Rrudhani

17

▼

1

23

15

28

5

14

⚽

Corbaz

8

▼

Ramizi

10

⚽

Alves

11

⚽

Abedini

30

▼

Demhasaj

22

Tushi

Manager: R. Loose

65'▲S. Ballet←▼S. Demhasaj

79'▲S. Ltaief←▼S. Ramizi

FC Winterthur substitutes

17Ballet24Ltaief3Schättin4Isik20Baak26Kriz29Manzambi35Dakaj36Pukaj

Manager: S. Keller

69'▲L. Balaj←▼R. Schneider

75'▲S. Gashi←▼K. Spadanuda

87'▲J. Thiesson←▼D. Rrudhani

87'▲S. Schwegler←▼S. Vladi

FC Aarau substitutes

9Balaj10Gashi3Thiesson19Schwegler8Jäckle12Ammeter20Avdyli22Qollaku26Almeida