FC Aarau 1–2 FC Winterthur: Result & Stats

FC Aarau

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Winterthur

Nuno da Silva 51'

0 R. Schneider 90+10'

S. Ltaief 63'

9/17/2023

Schweizer Cup · 2nd RoundStadion Brügglifeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Aarau20%

×Draw22%

FC Winterthur58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AarauExpected goals in this matchFC Winterthur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.88

FC Aarau

1.01

FC Winterthur

1.88

FC Winterthur creates 86% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

0.89

creates per match

2.76

1.00

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

FC Aarau

0.89

FC Winterthur

2.76

allows per match

FC Aarau

1.00

FC Winterthur

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Aarau+0.00on par

FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Aarau ↓

FC Winterthur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Aarau or draw

42%

FC Aarau or FC Winterthur

78%

Draw or FC Winterthur

80%

Winning margin

FC Aarau wins by 2+

7%

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

FC Aarau 1+ goals

64%

FC Aarau 2+ goals

27%

FC Aarau 3+ goals

8%

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

85%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

56%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

FC Aarau (draw refunded)

26%

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Aarau at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Aarau attack 0.89 + FC Winterthur defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

FC Winterthur attack 2.76 + FC Aarau defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Aarau scores more

20%

level

22%

FC Winterthur scores more

58%

FC Winterthur at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

G. Lekaj

51'

Nuno da Silva

62'

A. Turkes← R. Buess

62'

T. Schättin← S. Diaby

63'

S. Ltaief

74'

H. Koide← Y. Toure

74'

M. Avdyli← Nuno da Silva

77'

A. Gantenbein← S. Ramizi

77'

R. Schneider← S. Ltaief

84'

85'

90+3'

90+3'

90+3'

90+11'

S. Demhasaj← S. Schwegler

90+10'

FC

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Frei

74'▲H. Koide←▼Y. Toure

74'▲M. Avdyli←▼Nuno da Silva

84'▲A. Njie←▼I. Pappoe

85'▲A. Qollaku←▼N. Wetz

90+11'▲S. Demhasaj←▼S. Schwegler

FC Aarau substitutes

KoideAvdyliNjieQollakuDemhasajHirzelHasaniGebreyesusKronig

Manager: P. Rahmen

62'▲A. Turkes←▼R. Buess

62'▲T. Schättin←▼S. Diaby

77'▲A. Gantenbein←▼S. Ramizi

77'▲R. Schneider←▼S. Ltaief

FC Winterthur substitutes

TurkesSchättinGantenbeinSchneiderArazKusterArnoldCorbazSchmid