FC Voluntari 0–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

FC Voluntari

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

10/27/2023

Liga I · Round 14Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

FC Voluntari38%

×Draw28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VoluntariExpected goals in this matchSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.11

FC Voluntari

1.21

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 135 away

1.16

creates per match

1.18

1.05

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

FC Voluntari

1.16

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.18

allows per match

FC Voluntari

1.05

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw

67%

FC Voluntari or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

72%

Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

62%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+

16%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals

70%

FC Voluntari 2+ goals

34%

FC Voluntari 3+ goals

12%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

67%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

30%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)

53%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.16 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + FC Voluntari defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Voluntari scores more

38%

level

28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

33%

FC Voluntari at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Voluntari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff