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FC Voluntari vs FC Clinceni — Liga I 2018

FC Voluntari
FC Voluntari
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
8/13/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 5Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FC Voluntari51%
×Draw25%
FC Clinceni24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Voluntari
1.56
FC Clinceni
0.97

FC Voluntari creates 61% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 59 away

creates per match

FC Voluntari
1.15
FC Clinceni
0.90

allows per match

FC Voluntari
1.04
FC Clinceni
1.98

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw
76%
FC Voluntari or FC Clinceni
75%
Draw or FC Clinceni
49%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+
26%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals
79%
FC Voluntari 2+ goals
46%
FC Voluntari 3+ goals
21%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
62%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
25%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)
68%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.15 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + FC Voluntari defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Voluntari scores more
51%
level
25%
FC Clinceni scores more
24%

FC Voluntari at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Voluntari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Voluntari 1 – 0 FC Clinceni

FC Voluntari beat FC Clinceni 1-0 in Liga I on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.