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FC Clinceni vs FC Voluntari — Liga I 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Voluntari
FC Voluntari
3/13/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 27Stadionul Clinceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Clinceni37%
×Draw27%
FC Voluntari36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.25
FC Voluntari
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 119 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
0.97
FC Voluntari
1.01

allows per match

FC Clinceni
1.47
FC Voluntari
1.54

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
FC Voluntari+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

FC Voluntari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
64%
FC Clinceni or FC Voluntari
73%
Draw or FC Voluntari
63%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
16%
FC Voluntari wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
71%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
36%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
13%
FC Voluntari 1+ goals
71%
FC Voluntari 2+ goals
35%
FC Voluntari 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
50%
FC Voluntari (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

FC Voluntari away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + FC Voluntari defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Voluntari attack 1.01 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
37%
level
27%
FC Voluntari scores more
36%

FC Clinceni at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FC Clinceni 0–1 FC Voluntari

FC Voluntari beat FC Clinceni 1-0 in Liga I on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni in Clinceni.