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FC Voluntari vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2026

FC Voluntari
FC Voluntari
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
12/16/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 21Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

FC Voluntari40%
×Draw28%
Farul Constanta32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Voluntari
1.23
Farul Constanta
1.08

FC Voluntari creates 14% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 99 away

creates per match

FC Voluntari
1.16
Farul Constanta
1.12

allows per match

FC Voluntari
1.05
Farul Constanta
1.31

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par
Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw
68%
FC Voluntari or Farul Constanta
72%
Draw or Farul Constanta
60%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+
17%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals
71%
FC Voluntari 2+ goals
35%
FC Voluntari 3+ goals
13%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
66%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
29%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)
55%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.16 + Farul Constanta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Farul Constanta attack 1.12 + FC Voluntari defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Voluntari scores more
40%
level
28%
Farul Constanta scores more
32%

FC Voluntari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Voluntari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Voluntari vs Farul Constanta

FC Voluntari and Farul Constanta drew 1-1 in Liga I on December 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.