FC Vitebsk 3–2 Orsha: Result & Stats | 1. Division

FC Vitebsk

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Orsha

11/11/2023

1. Division · Round 32Stadyen Central'ny Vitsyebski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Vitebsk62%

×Draw21%

Orsha17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VitebskExpected goals in this matchOrsha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.96

FC Vitebsk

2.05

Orsha

0.96

FC Vitebsk creates 114% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 128 away

1.94

creates per match

1.36

0.56

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

FC Vitebsk

1.94

Orsha

1.36

allows per match

FC Vitebsk

0.56

Orsha

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Orsha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vitebsk ↓

Orsha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Vitebsk or draw

83%

FC Vitebsk or Orsha

79%

Draw or Orsha

38%

Winning margin

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+

38%

Orsha wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals

87%

FC Vitebsk 2+ goals

61%

FC Vitebsk 3+ goals

33%

Orsha 1+ goals

62%

Orsha 2+ goals

25%

Orsha 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)

79%

Orsha (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vitebsk at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

Orsha away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vitebsk attack 1.94 + Orsha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.05

Orsha attack 1.36 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Vitebsk scores more

62%

level

21%

Orsha scores more

17%

FC Vitebsk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff