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FC Vitebsk vs Orsha — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
FT
2 – 3
Orsha
Orsha
2/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3CSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Vitebsk65%
×Draw19%
Orsha17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vitebsk
2.38
Orsha
1.13

FC Vitebsk creates 111% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

FC Vitebsk
1.50
Orsha
0.75

allows per match

FC Vitebsk
1.50
Orsha
3.25

finishing

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par
Orsha+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vitebsk ↓

Orsha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FC Vitebsk or draw
83%
FC Vitebsk or Orsha
81%
Draw or Orsha
35%

Winning margin

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
42%
Orsha wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
91%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
68%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
42%
Orsha 1+ goals
68%
Orsha 2+ goals
31%
Orsha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
79%
Orsha (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vitebsk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Orsha away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vitebsk attack 1.50 + Orsha defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Orsha attack 0.75 + FC Vitebsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FC Vitebsk scores more
65%
level
19%
Orsha scores more
17%

FC Vitebsk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Vitebsk vs Orsha

Orsha beat FC Vitebsk 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at CSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole in Vitebsk.