FC Urartu 2–3 Farul Constanta: Result & Stats

FC Urartu

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Farul Constanta

L. Sabua 47'

N. Antwi 11'

D. Alibec 90+2', 57'

D. Nedelcu 53'

8/3/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundUrartu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Urartu27%

×Draw24%

Farul Constanta48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UrartuExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.64

FC Urartu

1.17

Farul Constanta

1.64

Farul Constanta creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

1.60

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

FC Urartu

1.00

Farul Constanta

1.67

allows per match

FC Urartu

1.60

Farul Constanta

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Urartu+0.00on par

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Urartu ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Urartu or draw

52%

FC Urartu or Farul Constanta

76%

Draw or Farul Constanta

73%

Winning margin

FC Urartu wins by 2+

11%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

FC Urartu 1+ goals

69%

FC Urartu 2+ goals

33%

FC Urartu 3+ goals

11%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

81%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

49%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Urartu (draw refunded)

36%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Urartu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Urartu attack 1.00 + Farul Constanta defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Farul Constanta attack 1.67 + FC Urartu defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Urartu scores more

27%

level

24%

Farul Constanta scores more

48%

Farul Constanta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

N. Antwi

28'

Dragoș Nedelcu

30'

A. Artean← A. Benchaib

31'

Rivaldinho← C. Grameni

47'

49'

53'

57'

67'

68'

M. Mirzoyan← I. Zotko

79'

A. Özbiliz← N. Grigoryan

79'

O. Polyakov← L. Sabua

81'

K. Boli← M. Popescu

81'

I. Vînă← D. Nedelcu

85'

Adrian Mazilu

89'

T. Dzhikiya← Marcos Júnior

90'

Denis Alibec

90+2'

D. Alibec

Shots

Statistics

FCFarul

Overview

9Total Shots11

8Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots11

3On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked1

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

5Offsides5