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Farul Constanta vs FC Urartu — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
I. Larie 90+5'
A. Mazilu 45+4'
T. Băluță 27'
I. Zotko 38'
A. Maksimenko 23'
7/27/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farul Constanta73%
×Draw15%
FC Urartu12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
2.73
FC Urartu
1.00

Farul Constanta creates 173% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
2.67
FC Urartu
1.00

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.00
FC Urartu
2.80

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
88%
Farul Constanta or FC Urartu
85%
Draw or FC Urartu
27%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
52%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
93%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
75%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
50%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
63%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
26%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
86%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 2.67 + FC Urartu defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.73

FC Urartu attack 1.00 + Farul Constanta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
73%
level
15%
FC Urartu scores more
12%

Farul Constanta at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
N. Aghasaryan← P. Mogilevets
23'
A. Maksimenko
27'
T. Băluță
34'
Erik Piloyan
38'
I. Zotko
43'
Ivan Zotko
45+4'
A. Mazilu
46'
Rivaldinho← A. Benchaib
46'
A. Artean← C. Grameni
59'
Narek Grigoryan
61'
Mihai Popescu
63'
D. Sîrbu← A. Borza
69'
A. Ghazaryan← I. Zotko
70'
A. Özbiliz← Marcos Júnior
77'
Nana Antwi
79'
M. Mirzoyan← N. Grigoryan
79'
T. Dzhikiya← A. Maksimenko
83'
Rivaldinho
88'
K. Boli← M. Popescu
88'
Mateus Santos← A. Mazilu
90'
Narek Aghasaryan
90+5'
I. Larie

Statistics

FarulFC
Overview
6Corners4
Discipline
2Yellow Cards5

UEFA Europa Conference League: Farul Constanta 3–2 FC Urartu

Farul Constanta beat FC Urartu 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 27, 2023.

Goals: A. Maksimenko (23'), T. Băluță (27'), I. Zotko (38'), A. Mazilu (45+4'), I. Larie (90+5').

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.