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FC UFA vs Ural — First League 2024

FC UFA
FC UFA
Preview
16:00
Ural
Ural
11/21/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 18BetBoom Arena
Big match
37%
FC UFA
model favours
37%27%36%

Ural win just 30% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC UFA37%
×Draw27%
Ural36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.23
Ural
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.31
Ural
1.21

allows per match

FC UFA
1.20
Ural
1.15

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
64%
FC UFA or Ural
73%
Draw or Ural
63%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
16%
Ural wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
71%
FC UFA 2+ goals
35%
FC UFA 3+ goals
13%
Ural 1+ goals
70%
Ural 2+ goals
34%
Ural 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
51%
Ural (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.31 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ural attack 1.21 + FC UFA defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC UFA scores more
37%
level
27%
Ural scores more
36%

FC UFA at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC UFA sit 1, Ural 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
UFA
WLLDW
Ural
LDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC UFA vs Ural — Match Preview

FC UFA face Ural on November 21, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC UFA host Ural at BetBoom Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.