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FC UFA vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2024

FC UFA
FC UFA
Preview
15:00
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
4/17/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 28BetBoom Arena
Big match
43%
FC UFA
model favours
43%28%30%

FC UFA sit 1, FK Neftekhimik 13 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC UFA43%
×Draw28%
FK Neftekhimik30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.32
FK Neftekhimik
1.06

FC UFA creates 25% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 39 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.38
FK Neftekhimik
0.97

allows per match

FC UFA
1.16
FK Neftekhimik
1.26

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
70%
FC UFA or FK Neftekhimik
72%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
57%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
20%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
73%
FC UFA 2+ goals
38%
FC UFA 3+ goals
15%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
65%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
29%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
59%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.26 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.38 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

FK Neftekhimik attack 0.97 + FC UFA defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC UFA scores more
43%
level
28%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
30%

FC UFA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
UFA
WLLDW
Neftekhimik
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC UFA face FK Neftekhimik (First League)

First League returns with FC UFA hosting FK Neftekhimik. Match starts April 17, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC UFA host FK Neftekhimik at BetBoom Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.