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FC UFA vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

FC UFA
FC UFA
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
O. Minatulaev 57'
M. Ageyan 40'
D. Ortiz 15' (pen)
D. Mikhaylov 71'
M. Sitdikov 48'
10/25/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 16BetBoom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA37%
×Draw28%
FK Neftekhimik35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 123 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.23
FK Neftekhimik
1.12

allows per match

FC UFA
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.19

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
65%
FC UFA or FK Neftekhimik
72%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
63%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
16%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
70%
FC UFA 2+ goals
34%
FC UFA 3+ goals
12%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
68%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
32%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
52%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC UFA scores more
37%
level
28%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
35%

FC UFA at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
D. OrtizPenalty
40'
M. Ageyan
46'
M. Musalov← E. Valiakhmetov
46'
D. Mikhaylov← A. Nikitin
48'
M. Sitdikov
52'
D. Sukhomlinov← K. Shiltsov
53'
Migran Ageyan
57'
O. Minatulaev
60'
S. Dzhamilov← G. Kantaria
60'
I. Mashukov← R. Magomedov
65'
Osman Minatulaev
67'
Danila Sukhomlinov
69'
S. Isaev← N. Matskharashvili
71'
D. Mikhaylov
77'
D. Akhatov← D. Ortiz
90+1'
R. Gystarov← A. Baranovsky
90+1'
I. Karpuk← O. Minatulaev

Statistics

FCFK
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: FC UFA 3–2 FK Neftekhimik

FC UFA beat FK Neftekhimik 3-2 in First League on October 25, 2025.

Goals: D. Ortiz (15' pen), M. Ageyan (40'), M. Sitdikov (48'), O. Minatulaev (57'), D. Mikhaylov (71').

The match was played at BetBoom Arena in Ufa.